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- Integrate prediction algorithm X into the infrastructure (personally I don’t mind which, but Michele’s suggestion of 1 supervised and 1 unsupervised is good)
- The training time range to be used will be from 00:00:00 UT on 14-Sep-2012 (start of SHARP NRT data availability) to 23:59:59 UT on 31-Dec-2015
- Concern was raised previously about number of features for training, so a large training time range seems to be preferred
- This allows for the testing time range to be from 00:00:00 UT on 1-Jan-2016 to <most recently processed time stamp>, but this will be performed under WP5
- Run integrated prediction algorithm with the following training configuration settings:
- 24-hr forecast window
- 0-hr latency
- use only 00:00 UT time stamps (to avoid SDO 24-hr periodic orbital effects)
- create individual training configuration files separately using Blos and Br properties for flaring levels of:
- C-class only (i.e., >= C1.0 and < M1.0)
algorithm_cclass_24_0_00_Blos_all
algorithm_cclass_24_0_00_Br_all - M-class only (i.e., >= M1.0 and < X1.0)
algorithm_mclass_24_0_00_Blos_all
algorithm_mclass_24_0_00_Br_all - X-class only (i.e., >= X1.0)
algorithm_xclass_24_0_00_Blos_all
algorithm_xclass_24_0_00_Br_all - Above M-class (i.e., >= M1.0)
algorithm_abovem_24_0_00_Blos_all
algorithm_abovem_24_0_00_Br_all - Above C-class (i.e., >= C1.0)
algorithm_abovec_24_0_00_Blos_all
algorithm_abovec_24_0_00_Br_all
- C-class only (i.e., >= C1.0 and < M1.0)
- There is no explicit reason why we should use all properties (but is worth doing for completeness), so another set of 10x configuration files should be prepared for a reduced set of "optimized"/"feature selected" properties
- C-class only (i.e., >= C1.0 and < M1.0)
algorithm_cclass_24_0_00_Blos_opt
algorithm_cclass_24_0_00_Br_opt - M-class only (i.e., >= M1.0 and < X1.0)
algorithm_mclass_24_0_00_Blos_opt
algorithm_mclass_24_0_00_Br_opt - X-class only (i.e., >= X1.0)
algorithm_xclass_24_0_00_Blos_opt
algorithm_xclass_24_0_00_Br_opt - Above M-class (i.e., >= M1.0)
algorithm_abovem_24_0_00_Blos_opt
algorithm_abovem_24_0_00_Br_opt - Above C-class (i.e., >= C1.0)
algorithm_abovec_24_0_00_Blos_opt
algorithm_abovec_abovec_24_0_00_Br_opt
- C-class only (i.e., >= C1.0 and < M1.0)
- NOTE: there may be no point doing X-class only for either of these all or "optimized"/"feature selected" property set cases, given their rarity in the training time period
- NOTE: can run configurations with a combination of Blos and Br properties (possible filename tag Bmix) that would need to be run for its own 5 all and "optimized"/"feature selected" property sets both with their own flaring level scenarios – therefore creating another 10 configuration files (or 4 8 if "X-class only" case cases left out)
- Run all 20 training configuration parameter files (or 16 if "X-class only" cases left out)
- Write variables of all 20 trained prediction models into Prediction Configuration DB (or 16 if "X-class only" cases left out)
- Integrate next prediction algorithm and repeat steps 2–5
- Prediction DB can be filled for each integrated prediction algorithm by launching all 20x (or 16x) trained prediction models for that algorithm on the chosen testing time range
- NOTE: the SDO/HMI image alignment bug from 13-Apr-2016 onwards will limit the availability of properties to make predictions from, until the replacement HMI data are available (UPSud is monitoring and downloading when available)
- Broader WP5 validation can be explored by choosing different durations of forecast window and repeating steps 2–5 and 7 for all integrated prediction algorithms
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